Iran: The Civil Defense Organization plans to conduct drills in the country's petrochemical trade zone to boost crisis response capabilities, the organization's Caretaker of Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) Affairs Mansour Rostamifar said on 22 February.
Comment: This is a significant development, assuming the drills are held, because of the high cost of civil defense drills to the civilian economy. Such activities always are a net drain on the economy and, therefore, much more diagnostic of national leadership thinking than military activities. The leadership is concerned about an attack and has ordered prudent precautions.
The Iranian leaders appear to expect an attack would target their oil infrastructure, though the external threat is against the nuclear industry. The civil defense drills make sense if the nuclear facilities are located within the "petrochemical trade zone."
Comment: This is a significant development, assuming the drills are held, because of the high cost of civil defense drills to the civilian economy. Such activities always are a net drain on the economy and, therefore, much more diagnostic of national leadership thinking than military activities. The leadership is concerned about an attack and has ordered prudent precautions.
The Iranian leaders appear to expect an attack would target their oil infrastructure, though the external threat is against the nuclear industry. The civil defense drills make sense if the nuclear facilities are located within the "petrochemical trade zone."